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Post-BC Election Analysis: Securing Muslim Voters is One Thing, Fulfilling Promises is Another
10-23-2024
Another provincial election, another nail biter. Election night results painted a picture of a polarized British Columbia, with NDP dominating the BC coastline, and newly emerged Conservatives dominating the interior and northern BC, with pulling few punches south of the Fraser River, in Richmond, Surrey and Fraser valley. The results so far represent a divided BC, with NDP garnering 44.5 percent of the votes, and Conservatives with 43.5 percent of the counted votes.
No Clear Winners in a Divided Electorate
Overall, out of ninety-three seats, both the NDP and the Conservatives with confirmed winners on forty seats, and the BC Greens with two confirmed victories. The remaining 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots will determine which party will govern BC, and whether it will be a majority – 47 seats needed – or a minority coalition government with the BC Greens. The British Columbians will know by late Saturday night, not factoring in the automatic recount, which is triggered if the difference is less than 100 votes between the candidates. So far it seems it will be the repeat of 2017.
Certainly, there are no clear winners. British Columbians needed a government that was prepared to address the issues which mattered to them, and the division amongst voters exemplifies that none of the parties were able to offer a clear solution that could have united the voters.
Obviously, this is not what the parties would want. Albeit from voters’ perspective it keeps the coalition government on the edge of their seats and provides a wider room for the opposition to hold them accountable if they fumble.
Whatever the finally results may be, at Alameen Post we would like to acknowledge all the candidates who stepped forward to place their names on the ballot paper and putting their vision of BC to the voters. This certainly is not an easy task where candidates make themselves open to all types of personal scrutiny by all.
However, the clear winner is John Rustad, and his Conservatives, who has proven to be a master stroke politician who built a party from scratch and almost win the election.
Surrey City Centre: A Key Battleground
Amongst the riding that can tip the balance of power is Surrey City Centre. Both candidates, were Muslims, Amna Shah, an NDP party worker (6438 votes), and Zeeshan Wahla (6343 votes) for the Conservatives. Less than 100 votes separate them, and the winner is yet to be decided. Congratulation to both candidates for running a tight and competitive campaign.
Although Ms. Shah ran in a traditional NDP safe riding against Mr. Wahla. Mr. Wahla seemed to have managed to get majority of the Muslim votes by virtue of having strong family ties who is deeply rooted in the Muslim community.
Mr. Rustad has demonstrated to the NDP that fielding a Muslim candidate with strong family ties can successfully mobilize Muslim voters. However, his next challenge is to show that he is genuinely committed to addressing the needs of the Muslim community and delivering on his promises. While his strategy of selecting a candidate with deep community roots has proven effective, Rustad now needs to back it up by proving his party’s dedication to tackling the issues that matter most to Muslim voters.
Islamophobia and Political Accountability
Once again, Islamophobia was front and center during this election campaign. The Muslim mosques coalition along with BCMA and NCCM did raise several issues with regards to Islamophobic comments made by Conservative candidate Mr. Brent Chapman several years ago.
“We urge the BC Conservative Party to act swiftly and decisively. The party must hold its representatives accountable and take meaningful action to address this situation. It is imperative that the party live up to its commitment to challenge all forms of hate, bigotry, and discrimination and should ask Mr. Chapman to step down,” the BCMA stated in a press release.
Despite the pressure from Muslim organizations, and other minority groups seeking Brent Chapman’s resignation. Mr. Rustad did not remove his name from the ballot and Chapman did manage to win the riding seat.
Not only did chapman win other ridings that were considered safe for BC NDP were lost despite Muslim organizations, former BC United members and NDP volunteers collectively campaigning in support of the BC NDP.
The message was clear from the Muslim voters we need our voices heard and perhaps the mosques and Muslim organizations should steer clear of guiding voters who to vote for and stop special interest groups taking over Muslim organizations. This is the second election where Muslim voters voted opposite to what was preached from the pulpits and recommended by the special interest groups. Henceforth, the message was clear if the pulpit is going to be used for petty political gains, the community will not tolerate it.
Special recognition goes to an Independent Muslim candidate in Surrey-Guildford riding who saw a need for independent Muslim voice, which the community needs. He has paved the way for future Muslim candidates to break away from party lines and represent the values citizens expects from their political representatives.
A New Political Landscape in BC
There also seemed to be a clear divide amongst the Lower Mainland voters between the north and south of the Fraser River.
David Eby’s NDP won 11 out of 12 Vancouver seats, all 5 Burnaby seats, and all 5 across tri-cities and New Westminster. They also held on to their 2 North Vancouver’s seats.
John Rustad’s Conservatives are on-track to win 7 of the 10 Surrey seats, and 3 of the 4 Richmond seats. This in addition to 6 seats across Langley, Abbotsford and Chilliwack.
There were number of factors that led to NDP losses south of the Fraser River, “If you’re feeling hurt by soaring housing costs and grocery bills and gas prices in places like Surrey and Richmond and in the north and the Interior, the election was like a megaphone for frustration,” Jeff Ferrier, Framepoint Public Affairs told the Vancouver Sun.
Kwantlen Polytechnic University political science professor Shinder Purewal told the Vancouver Sun, “Many in Surrey’s South Asian community, which makes up almost 40 per cent of residents, are unhappy with certain social policies such as the SOGI 123 sexual orientation and gender identity modules used by teachers as a way to create a safe space for LGBTQ+ youth.” Whereas Mr. Rustad has promised to scrap SOGI 123.
Looking Ahead
In closing remarks, we would like to state that BC NDP does deserve some sympathy from Muslim voters as the only party that let go a sitting MLA for her Islamophobic and anti-Palestinian remarks.
The party deserves credit for making efforts to connect with Muslim voters, including multiple visits to mosques and community events compared to previous elections but they fell short of securing the support they needed.
The party now faces the challenge of rebuilding trust with a community that has grown weary of political promises. The loss of a near-safe seat like Surrey City Centre is a sign that relying on established institutions may no longer be enough to win elections.
Too almost losing a winning safe seat to entice the Muslim organizations that did not deliver is not a very encouraging scenario any party would risk in the future. They have some homework to do and any government that is formed need to have a strategy to deal with Muslim organizations trying to get some political clout and at times representing special interests distinct from the needs of larger Muslim community who just want to have their voices heard.
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